Opening Comment — Monday, June 16, 2025
DJIA: 42,197.79, down 769.83
S&P 500: 5,976.97, down 68.29
NASDAQ: 19,406.83, down 255.65
Stocks higher to start off week
Stock futures are higher Monday morning as investors look ahead to tomorrow’s May retail sales and industrial production data, along with Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections. As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.6% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Friday following Israel conducting military strikes against Iran. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading of consumer sentiment improved significantly more than expected following an increase in consumer expectations and a substantial decline in one-year inflation expectations. The Dow was down 1.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%. The S&P 500 decreased 1.1% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 1.7%, while the Financials sector was the bottom performer, falling 2.1%.
On the data front, the New York Fed will release their June Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with the headline general business conditions index expected to come in at negative 6.3 from the prior month’s negative 9.2.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as Rightmove’s measure of British house prices for June decreased by 0.3% month-over-month and increased by 0.8% year-over-year (YOY). The eurozone’s first quarter labor costs grew by 3.4% YOY compared to prior month’s revised 3.8% increase.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as China’s industrial production for May registered a smaller-than-expected increase of 5.8% YOY. Meanwhile, the country’s retail sales for May increased more than expected, rising by 6.4% YOY.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower ahead of this week’s central bank meetings, starting with the Bank of Japan’s Tuesday meeting. Later in the week, the Fed and Sweden’s Riksbank will have meetings on Wednesday, while the central banks of England, Norway, and China will each meet on Thursday.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.6% lower at $72.58/barrel amid ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.6% lower at $3,410.30/ounce despite a weakening dollar.